My Two Census

Formerly the non-partisan watchdog of the 2010 US Census, and currently an opinion blog that covers all things political, media, foreign policy, globalization, and culture…but sometimes returning to its census/demographics roots.

Archive for the ‘Census Bureau’ Category

2010 Census news roundup…

Thursday, April 7th, 2011

Hi everyone, it’s been a long time. Unfortunately, life has made it such that MyTwoCensus.com isn’t my #1 priority at this moment, but that doesn’t mean that the impact of the 2010 Census is any less pertinent. In fact, there has been tons of news lately about the 2010 Census. Some key stories that I’ve been following:

1.  As I would have predicted, specifically in the case of New York, where I identified myriad problems with 2010 Census operations, the city is disputing its 2010 Census numbers as it will likely be missing out on a ton of federal funding ($3,000 per resident not counted per year). Here’s some info.

2. Despite its inflated advertising budget (don’t forget that bomb of a Super Bowl ad), the Census Bureau’s 2010 Census ad campaign is winning awards…but again, these are industry awards created by the industry, for the industry, so don’t take them too seriously. When you compare the amount of ad dollars spent in 2000 vs. 2010 to the participation rates, it is clear that 2000 was a better performance proportionally.

3. This shouldn’t be a major shock, but America’s demographics are  CHANGING. While the surge of Hispanics was expected, people didn’t expect the number of Asians in America to be growing so quickly. Here’s some info.

4. Minorities are moving to the suburbs and whites are moving to the cities, reversing trends that started in the post-war era. This is very interesting.

5. The GOP’s (Republican Party) success in the 2010 Elections may translate to redistricting success. Here’s a look at how the GOP won big in the 2010 Census.

On a more positive note, I have become quite interested in genealogy in recent months and I can tell you that US Census records have been invaluable in tracing my family’s history. In this sense, I am quite happy and proud that my family participated in the 2010 Census, because maybe, long after I’m gone, a future generation will be able to access information and learn about life in the year 2010.

Census: Learning Lessons from 2010, Planning for 2020

Wednesday, April 6th, 2011

Editor’s note: I’m currently in London where the UK’s 2011 Census is now underway. A 2011 UK Census form came in the mail a few days ago and I have also seen numerous billboards around town telling residents that they can complete the 2011 Census online. If only America would have been able to get its act together for an online 2010 Census…Of course, Census Bureau Director Robert M. Groves will state at this hearing that he is exploring options for how to put the 2020 Census online. This is a complete no-brainer…

***Media Advisory***

HEARING: “Census: Learning Lessons from 2010, Planning for 2020″

WASHINGTON – Sen. Tom Carper (D-Del.), Chairman of the Senate Subcommittee on Federal Financial Management, Government Information, Federal Services, and International Security, will hold a hearing titled “Census: Learning Lessons from 2010, Planning for 2020″ on Wednesday, April 6, 2011, at 1:30 p.m. in room 342 of the Dirksen Senate Office Building in Washington, D.C.

The purpose of the hearing is to identify lessons learned from the 2010 Census, identify technological advances that can be used to improve data quality and reexamine areas that could help produce a more cost-effective 2020 Census. The hearing will also assess recent developments with the American Community Survey, an ongoing statistical survey that produces demographic information.

“Planning for the 2020 Census is already underway, so it is time for us to start considering how we can improve upon the 2010 Census,” said Sen. Carper. “I’m particularly interested to learn about how existing technology can be incorporated into the 2020 Census. As we embark upon a decade’s worth of extensive research and preparation, we will begin with this hearing by identifying a few of the initiatives that show promise for producing an accurate and cost-effective 2020 Census.”

For more information or to watch a live stream of Sen. Carper’s hearing, please click HERE.

WHAT:

U.S. Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Subcommittee on Federal Financial Management, Government Information, Federal Services, and International Security Hearing “Census: Learning Lessons from 2010, Planning for 2020″

WHEN:

Wednesday, April 6, 2011

1:30 p.m.

WHERE:

342 Dirksen Senate Office Building

Washington, D.C.

WITNESSES:

Panel I:

The Honorable Robert Groves

Director

U.S. Census Bureau

U.S. Department of Commerce

Mr. Todd Zinser

Inspector General

U.S. Department of Commerce

Mr. Robert Goldenkoff

Director, Strategic Issues

U.S. Government Accountability Office

Panel II:

Mr. Daniel Castro

Senior Analyst

Information Technology and Innovation Foundation

Dr. Thomas Cook, Ph. D.

Committee on National Statistics

The National Academies

Mr. Arturo Vargas

Executive Director

National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials

Sorry for the radio silence…we’re back.

Thursday, February 10th, 2011

An inside source tells us the people named in this MyTwoCensus piece are still employed by the Census Bureau! (A check on Census.gov confirmed this.)

The latest from the Inspector General’s office…

Sunday, December 26th, 2010

We failed to post a piece from the Inspector General about the Census Bureau’s “partnership” programs that MyTwoCensus criticized heavily for its lax spending procedures. Check out the November 18, 2010 report HERE.

And if you turn to page 20 of this Inspector General’s office document that was released on December 20, 2010,  you will find an update on recommendations being made for the 2020 Census.

Happy Holidays and Happy New Year!

2010 Census data now available…

Tuesday, December 21st, 2010

Have a field day folks!

And the big winner is Texas. Ohio and New York are the biggest losers…Are the many critiques from MyTwoCensus of the counting process in NYC now being proven valid?

Media requests

Tuesday, December 21st, 2010

If you are a member of the news media and need a quote or interview about the 2010 Census results, please contact morse [at] mytwocensus.com

2010 Census results will be released tomorrow…

Monday, December 20th, 2010

11AM EST tomorrow. The data dump you’ve all been waiting for. Early predictions are that the GOP will score big (because of wins in the November elections that will enable the GOP to redraw the maps of many Congressional and state districts).

Take a look at the Census Bureau’s interactive map HERE.

PS – It’s a shame that there are so few demographics reporters out there these days to deeply analyze this data at the local and regional level.

Ed O’Keefe: 2010 Census results coming Dec. 21

Tuesday, December 14th, 2010

H/t to Ed O’Keefe of the Washington Post for the following:

How many people live in the United States? Where do they live? Where did they move from? Which states get more seats in Congress?

We’ll start getting answers next week, when the U.S. Census Bureau fulfills its constitutional mandate and presents the results of the 2010 Census.

The data will include the total population for the country, each of the 50 states and the Congressional apportionment totals for each.

By law, the Census Bureau must report the decennial census results to the president by Dec. 31.

From the Census Bureau…

Monday, December 13th, 2010

Sens. Carper, Coburn Hail Senate Passage of Bipartisan Census Reform Bill

Thursday, December 9th, 2010

FOR RELEASE: Dec. 9, 2010

WASHINGTON – Today, Sen. Tom Carper (D-DE), chairman of the Senate subcommittee with jurisdiction over the census, hailed the unanimous Senate passage of legislation that brings much needed stability of leadership and organizational reform to the Census Bureau, the nation’s largest general-purpose statistical agency. The Census Oversight and Management Act of 2010, co-authored by Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK), Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY), and Rep. Charlie Dent (R-PA), is crafted to improve Census management challenges which arise from the fact the Census operates on a constitutionally mandated ten-year cycle while Presidential administrations which oversee management of the Census operate on a four-year cycle. The bill strengthens Congressional oversight of the Census to help prevent operational problems that have emerged on the eve of the censuses in 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2010, in part from a lack of steady leadership and management due to changes in Presidential administrations.

The Census Oversight, Efficiency and Management Reform Act would ensure that the Census Bureau enjoys the independence of governance that will best enable it to perform its essential function in the following ways:

o   Makes the Director of the Census Bureau a presidential term appointment of five years, with the 10-year decennial cycle split into two, five-year phases – planning and operational, creating continuity across administrations.

o   Gives the Director the independence to report directly to the Secretary of Commerce without being required to report through any other official at the Commerce Department.

o   Requires the Director to submit to Congress a comprehensive annual report on the next decennial census, with a description of the Bureau’s performance standards and a risk-assessment of each significant decennial operation.

o   Requires the Bureau to test, develop, and implement an option for internet response to the 2020 Census and the American Community Survey.

“This bill is an important step forward in our effort to modernize and improve the Census process,” said Sen. Carper. “By working with our colleagues across the aisle, we were able to enact several common sense reforms that will strengthen the Census Bureau and enhance our ability to conduct a thorough, cost effective, and accurate Census.  I’d like to thank my colleagues for passing this bill and look forward to seeing a stronger, improved Census in 2020 and beyond.”

“In an age where the internet has become a primary form of communication and administration, getting the Census online by 2020 is a top priority. Although this is only the first step, it helps lay the groundwork for conducting cost-effective oversight that will give Congress and the Census Director the ability to better manage this Constitutional responsibility,” said Sen. Coburn, M.D.

###

Help a reporter out…Are you unemployed after working for the 2010 Census?

Friday, December 3rd, 2010

I know that many of the readers of MyTwoCensus.com are former 2010 Census employees who are now out of work. Please send an e-mail to morse (at) mytwocensus.com with your contact information if you are still looking for work and willing to speak to a reporter for a national newspaper about this.

Thanks!

Stephen

Just in time for Christmas: Official 2010 Census gear on EBay…again!

Friday, December 3rd, 2010

Months ago, I wrote how 2010 Census enumerator bags were popping up on EBay. All of these bags should have been returned when operations were completed. But history tends to repeat itself. A savvy MyTwoCensus reader sent over the following:

Here’s the link to the auction. (Note, the 2010 Census bag is RARE!)

*Note: Last time this happened, the Census Bureau likely purchased the bags from EBay to quiet my grumbling, as the materials were purchased soon after my post and I was told by the Census Bureau PR folks “We don’t see anything on EBay.”Just in case this happens again, here are some lovely screenshots:



Census Bureau to Host Webinar on 2010 Demographic Analysis

Wednesday, November 24th, 2010

What:    The Census Bureau will hold a webinar prior to the Dec. 6 release
of the 2010 Demographic Analysis estimates of the national
population by age, sex and race. The webinar will help explain the
methodology behind demographic analysis, why it is conducted and
how it relates to 2010 Census numbers and other U.S. population
figures being released by the Census Bureau. Although not 2010
Census counts, these estimates provide one way of measuring the
size of the U.S. population and will be used to analyze 2010
Census results.

The webinar will consist of a simultaneous audio conference and
online presentation. Reporters will be able to ask questions
following the online presentation.

Date:    Wednesday, Dec. 1, 2010

Time:    1:15-2 p.m. EST

Who:     Jason Devine, chief, Methodology, Research and Development Branch,
Estimates and Projections, Population Division

Conference details: Audio conference access information —
Toll free number: 888-324-9312
Participant passcode: CENSUS
Questions and answers are limited to media

Online presentation access information —
Please log in early, as some setup is required.
URL: https://www.mymeetings.com/nc/join/
Conference number: PW9500032
Audience passcode: CENSUS

Who estimated the 2010 Census supplies and printed materials contract? (RIP dead trees!)

Tuesday, November 9th, 2010
The following article comes from a former 2010 Census manager:
A month ago, MyTwoCensus posted a picture of hundreds of boxes of materials that were being recycled. Although no one will argue that recycling is good for the environment, the truth is none of this should of been printed in the first place. The Census Bureau estimate of the census forms they needed were off completely wrong and here’s why:
The company contracted to print the enumerator questionnaires (D1-E) printed over 200 million questionnaires. However the NRFU workload was only estimated to be 47 million households. Critics could argue that the NRFU workload was unknown before the printing contract was awarded however the American Community Survey estimate of 2008 only showed 128 million households in the United States. If America had a zero percent response rate they would still require only 128 million questionnaires, not the 200 million that was printed. There were 15 million enumerator supplemental questionnaires (D-1E SUPP) printed which field staff used when there were six or more household members. Information on how many households have six or more people was unavailable however only 23.4% of American households have 4 or more members. Any statistician can say with confidence that households with six or more members is negligible.
The errors in estimate cascaded to other printed materials such as information sheets and notice of visits also being overprinted. For example even though census procedures specifically allowed only three personal visits; in some regions to increase accuracy and avoid going to a proxy some enumerators made more than three visits. However Stephen Morse’s picture clearly shows there are still hundreds of boxes of these forms unused. Another example were the forms for eligibility employment verification (I-9) forms. The contract for the I-9 forms was 20 million, yet the census only ended up hiring about 600,000 employees across the nation and estimates show only a couple of million applicants.
None of this news should be surprising, Census models are completely inadequate. In 2009 during address canvassing they threw away millions of taxpayers’ dollars on training employees for which there was little or no work available. Each office returned palettes and palettes of office supplies such as pens, pencils, paper clips and rubber bands. The companies contracted to provide these were the ones who received the money.
If Census managers are infuriated over this picture perhaps they should be funneling their energy towards ensuring that their money is spent on technology that actually works and the proper amount of printing. Surely printing 200 million questionnaires for just 48 million households assuming assignment prep error is a little overkill.

Transcript of Census Bureau’s latest operational press briefing

Monday, November 8th, 2010

Unfortunately, at the last minute, other work prevented me from calling in to the 2010 Census press briefing. Nonetheless, here is the transcript of the event. These are some highlights that I have selected…(Remember, these people are professionals who know how to lie with statistics!):

1. We have just completed all of the interviewing for this decade’s post enumeration survey which we call the Census Coverage Measurement Operation. In a nutshell, things went well. Let me give you some statistics on that. We had a big interviewing force, as we did in the census itself. We had re-interviews of their work to check whether they were following training guidelines. 99.7 percent of those interviewers passed that reinterviewing check. Another way of saying that, we only had 18 interviewers that failed that check.

2. On the other hand, and a negative signal, is in the year 2000 about 0.14 percent of the cases when we finished all of our efforts we still didn’t have a population count on, it was a non-interview case. This time, that 0.14 has risen to 1.54 percent.

3. This year, we’re estimating at this point that about 96.5 percent of the addresses match up to the master address file that we used to mail out all the cases. Last time, in 2000, that 96.5 percent number was 91.4. Similarly, 96 percent of the cases we judge were correctly enumerated. Based on that match, compared to about 89.9 percent in 2000.

4, Let me turn to big operational issues. We had 494 local census offices. We’re closing those down in a very careful manner. We’ve closed more than 59 percent of them at this point. As of this morning, that’s 293. We think we’ll close all of those by November 12. This is not just kind of locking the doors and walking away. We have computer networks in these offices. We have a team that goes in and completely sanitizes the computer, the desktops, the Xerox machines. We want to make sure every trace of confidential information is wiped off these machines before they’re moved out of there.

5. So for those kind of checkbox fields, we failed to read about .1 percent of those in 2000. This time, we failed to read .03 percent.

AOL News: 2010 Census reveals possible undercount

Saturday, November 6th, 2010

MyTwoCensus thanks the astute reader who noticed this article (published 4 days ago) about a 2010 Census undercount (written by Andrea Stone, AOL’s Senior Washington Correspondent) that was then mysteriously removed from the internet by AOL. We’re not sure if this was because of an inaccuracy or some other reason. Nonetheless, here is a saved PDF file that shows the article. What do you think?

Countdown to Congressional reapportionment: 56 days

Saturday, November 6th, 2010

As mandated by the Constitution, this data must be delivered to the President of the United States on or before Dec. 31. That means we’ve got 56 days to go, but word is out that the information will appear around December 26.

How will big GOP wins at the state level affect redistricting?

Wednesday, November 3rd, 2010

The media is still focusing on the big GOP wins in the House of Representatives. Only a few commentators have noticed the huge gains that Republicans have made at the state level. Here’s some analysis from the Wall Street Journal:

Gains in eight states—including Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin— gave the GOP control of the governor’s office and both legislative chambers. Republicans will be in charge there when drawing new congressional maps, something every legislature must do following each 10-year federal census. Minnesota could join the list depending on the outcome of a governor’s race that was still too close to call as of Wednesday evening.

According to the National Conference of State Legislatures, Republicans now hold the largest share of state legislative seats—53%—since 1928. The party added at least 680 seats Tuesday, the largest gain by either party since 1966, the bipartisan group said.

The authority to carve out districts helps create safe congressional seats for the party in charge. Only a handful of states put the redistricting process in the hands of an independent commission.

“We should be able to pick up at least two-dozen seats,” said Frank Donatelli, the chairman of GOPAC, a political-action committee formed in 1979 to fight for state-level Republicans. “We are in better shape than at any time since the 1960s.”

Democrats didn’t gain control of an additional chamber in any state.

Census Bureau will hold press briefing later today…

Monday, November 1st, 2010

Feel free to listen in on the phone!

** CENSUS BUREAU MEDIA ADVISORY **

Census Bureau Director to Provide Update on
Status of 2010 Census Operations

What:       U.S. Census Bureau Director Robert M. Groves will brief the
media on the status of 2010 Census operations. Groves will discuss
the final 2010 Census mail participation rates and 2020 Census
planning.  The briefing will include a media question-and-answer
session.

When:    Monday, Nov. 1, 2 to 3 p.m. (EDT)

Who:         Robert M. Groves, director, U.S. Census Bureau

Where:   National Press Club, 13th floor
Holeman Lounge
529 14th Street, NW
Washington, DC 20045

Members of the media may also participate by telephone. (Please dial-in
early to allow time for the operator to place you in the call.)

Dial-in number:  888-603-8938
Passcode:  2010 CENSUS

Online Press Kit:
Event materials will be posted online shortly after the event begins and
can be accessed by clicking on the 2010 Census Operational Press briefing
at <http://2010.census.gov/news/press-kits/operational-press-briefing/>.

Webcast:
There will be a live webcast of the briefing, accessible at
<http://www.visualwebcaster.com/event.asp?id=73902> at 2 p.m. (EDT) on
event day.

Note to America: Your 2010 Census data is being handed over to private citizens

Thursday, October 28th, 2010

The Census Bureau has long touted that it keeps data private and confidential for 70 years after it is gathered. This concept proved to be false as recently as 2004, when the Census Bureau didn’t put up a fight as it turned over information about Arab-Americans to other government agencies.

The Census Bureau also readily hands over data to research centers at universities, both public and private. This is a little-known program that has not been mentioned in the press. While I may personally agree that universities with data access can provide benefits for society, I stand against the Census Bureau handing over this data on the principle that  the American people have not agreed that the Census Bureau can use their data in this way.

Take a look at this recent Census Bureau press release that highlights the 10+ sites around the country where universities have access to your data:

The Center for Economic Studies at the U.S. Census Bureau, in
partnership with the University of Minnesota, has opened a new Research
Data Center (RDC) laboratory on the university’s campus in Minneapolis.

RDCs are Census Bureau facilities where researchers from academia,
federal agencies and other institutions with approved projects receive
restricted access to unpublished Census Bureau demographic and economic
microdata files. These secure facilities are staffed by Census Bureau
employees and meet stringent physical and computer security requirements
for access to confidential data.

“The Minnesota Research Data Center will serve researchers from a broad
range of academic disciplines, with particular strengths in demography and
public health,” said Census Bureau Director Robert Groves. “The Minnesota
RDC will contribute not only by providing researchers with assistance in
using the demographic, business and health data but also by developing
improved or new data collections.”

“The research lab is housed in the Minnesota Population Center (MPC),
which has a tradition of collaboration with the Census Bureau and other
statistical agencies. As a world leader in the improvement, dissemination
and analysis of census data, MPC is equipped to make unique contributions
to the RDC program,” Groves said.

Before gaining access to the information at RDCs, researchers must
submit proposals to the RDC and the Census Bureau for approval. The review
process ensures that proposed research is feasible, has scientific merit
and benefits Census Bureau programs. In addition, RDC operating procedures,
strict security and strong legal safeguards assure the confidentiality of
these data as required by law. Researchers, for instance, must pass a full
background investigation and are sworn for life to protect the
confidentiality of the data they access, with violations subject to
significant financial and legal penalties.

The Minnesota Census Research Data Center joins similar centers that
have been established in Boston; Berkeley, Calif.; Los Angeles; Washington;
Chicago; Ann Arbor, Mich.; New York; Ithaca, N.Y.; and Durham, N.C. The
center at Berkeley has a branch at Stanford University in Palo Alto,
Calif., while the center at Durham has recently opened a branch at Research
Triangle Park, N.C. An additional center is scheduled to open at a site in
Atlanta in spring 2011.