My Two Census

I’m currently sitting in a lecture given by Susan Rasky of UC Berkeley’s Journalism School. She just shared with us a cool online tool from the Christian Science Monitor to track a whole load of American demographic data. Have fun using this site to compare areas of the United States with one another based on a whole load of cool factors ranging from Counties with a Whole Foods outlet to Counties with the highest foreclosure rates:

http://patchworknation.csmonitor.com/

When we’re talking about hard-to-count groups in Census-land, we oftentimes forget one shocking statistic: Many people who have a child under the age of five in their household simply forget to list that child (or children) on their census forms. The Census Bureau is trying to combat this by partnering with Nickelodeon television show Dora The Explorer to spread the 2010 Census message. However, with less than one week before Americans start to receive their 2010 Census forms in the mail, we wonder if this initiative could have been timed to get the word out with more advance notice?

On a semi-related note, see the below chart:

Census Bureau Director to Launch Children Awareness Campaign Featuring
Nickelodeon’s Dora the Explorer

What: U.S. Census Bureau Director Robert M. Groves and key partners will
hold a press conference to launch a 2010 Census public awareness
campaign, Children Count Too, about the importance of counting
infants and young children on census forms. In support of this
initiative, Census Bureau partner Nickelodeon will debut a new
television spot featuring Dora the Explorer, the popular
children’s character on the network’s award-winning animated
preschool series. The briefing will include a media
question-and-answer session.

When: Tuesday, March 9, 2010
10 a.m. (EST)

Who: Robert M. Groves, director, U.S. Census Bureau
Samantha Maltin, senior vice president of integrated marketing
and partnerships, Nickelodeon
Michael Laracy, director of policy reform and advocacy, Annie E.
Casey Foundation
William O’Hare, senior consultant, Annie E. Casey Foundation
Chris Perille, vice president of corporate communications and
public affairs, Mead
Johnson Nutrition
Maria Gomez, president, Mary’s Center

Where: Mary’s Center
2355 Ontario Road, NW
Washington, DC 20009

Back in October, I learned from Steve Jost that the Census Bureau would be sponsoring a NASCAR vehicle. Today, driver Greg Biffle will debut this 2010-Census emblazoned speed machine (the No. 16 Ford Fusion) for  the first of three NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races. Today’s race will be held at the Atlanta Motor Speedway and the other races will take place at Bristol Motor Speedway on Sunday, March 21 and Martinsville Speedway on Sunday, March 28.

I’ll never forget when my dad told me that NASCAR is America’s number one spectator sport, so I hope that with an average of 120,000 spectators at each Sprint Cup Series event, many eyes will be on the the 2010 Census logo and “mail it back!” on the hood, rear quarter panels and rear bumper of Biffle’s car. Additional elements stemming from the $1.2 million sponsorship deal include television spots on Fox during the races, a public service announcement from Biffle and 10 show car dates across the country.

(I’m hopeful that Greg Biffle — though I’d never heard of him before –  is the right man to carry the message. I’m not a NASCAR fan myself, but I wouldn’t be opposed to settling down with a beer and a bar-be-que for a few hours on a warm spring day with 120,000 of my dearest friends to watch Biffle’s car in action..)

A New York Times article about Haitian families “doubling up” in the wake up the January earthquake highlights yet another issue that census-takers will have to deal with…primarily in Florida, New York, and other areas with large Haitian communities.

In other areas, such as Cleveland, Ohio — a city that some institutions suspect was undercounted in 2000 — the financial crisis and subsequent loss of jobs has resulted in extended families living temporarily…or long term…with one another. Nobody ever said enumeration would be easy…

Taxpayers and government officials alike are either unaware of ignorant of one major debacle: The failure of the Harris Corp. to get their job done in creating and implementing functional mobile technology for the Census Bureau. Though this contract, signed in 2006, was originally valued at $600 million, it swelled to $800 million. (Reward insufficient and terrible work with more money…sounds like a solid government plan!!!)

If taxpayers have ever been swindled, this is the company that did it. (Harris Corp. was supposed to save the government $1 billion by implementing technology successfully, but in reality cost taxpayers $800 million for nothing!!! )  Unfortunately, higher-ups at the Census Bureau, initially during the Bush Administration, and currently during the Obama Administration, have done very little to recoup these losses. Legal action should be taken against this company for not performing the services that it was assigned to do. A large portion of this money should be returned to the United States Treasury — or at the very least, used to pay individuals working on the NRFU operations that will have to use a pen and pencil rather than a handheld computer.

In the year 2010, this is nothing short of pathetic. The government’s decision to choose the Harris Corporation for this contract was ludicrous. It’s decision to keep fueling the fires with $200 million of additional cash is shady at best.

MyTwoCensus intends to A. File an FOIA request to find out as much information about this contract as possible and B. Bring down Harris Corp. so they are forced to give this taxpayer money back.

MyTwoCensus urges Congress to pass legislation that prevents this company from obtaining more government contracts until the money for the 2010 Census contract is returned. Immediate government divestment from a corporation that robbed taxpayers is the only way to send the right message.

Additionally, MyTwoCensus calls on the government to immediately terminate  the Census Bureau’s 5-year contract with the Harris Corporation, as it is currently in its 5th year, and that means that there is still a chance to withhold 20% of the cash, or roughly $160 million.

On a more cheeky note, if Tea Party activists want to think of a site to hold their next protest, the Melbourne, Florida headquarters of this sleezy corporation would be one of the best and most symbolic places to do it!

MyTwoCensus has received multiple requests for us to create a message board function that will enable 2010 Census employees and curious Americans to ask questions about the decennial census and discuss its operations. We have answered your calls for action by creating community.mytwocensus.com – a place where words and media can flow freely. This forum will be a largely unregulated world where you are free to post as you wish and take discussion in whichever direction you choose. There are also options for you to post photos, videos, and information about events. We hope to get many active discussions going on this site. Should you want to use this new site anonymously or under an alias, you have that option.

In the future, you will be able to find this new community page by clicking on the “Join our MyTwoCensus community” button on the right hand side of this page.

(H/t to MyTwoCensus.com Chief Technology Officer Evan Goldin for setting this up!)

Hi I’m a recruiting assistant with the United States Census Bureau. We’re offering jobs in your community, as an RA I can’t tell you how long the jobs will last. The jobs may last eight weeks, but will probably be more like one to three weeks. I actually don’t know because our leaders at Census Bureau headquarters don’t know either. I do know you will need to take a basic skills test in reading comprehension, math skills and reasoning. However if you don’t get a perfect score and you’re not a veteran you may not get hired. On a lasting note you will make good money for a few weeks, then headquarters will realize they overestimated the workload, over staffed the operation and are running out of money. To make themselves look good they will probably tell you to work faster, do a haphazard job or risk being terminated. Are you still interested in a job?

MyTwoCensus.com has received a fair share of e-mails from Americans who are all asking the same question: Why did the Census Bureau choose to purchase a multimillion dollar Super Bowl advertisement? Census Bureau spokesman Stephen Buckner has responded to this and other related questions below:

Questions from Stephen Robert Morse, Founder/Editor of MyTwoCensus.com: Whose idea was it to air an ad for the Census Bureau during the Super Bowl? Who chose Christopher Guest as the director of the ad? Who chose which specific ad or ads will run? Which ad or ads will run? Were there ever focus groups to see how effective the ads were? If so, where and when did these focus groups take place? What were the results of these studies?

Answers from Stephen Buckner, Assistant Division Chief, Decennial Programs, Public Information Office:

The essential challenge for the Census is that because it happens only once
every ten years, many U.S. residents are unaware of when it happens (in
March) and how they participate (by mail).  Our own research in late 2009
showed less than 10% of Americans surveyed correctly answered that the 2010
Census occurred in March.  

The first goal of our promotion efforts is to
raise awareness of the when and how the Census works.  We have a very
limited window of opportunity to achieve our goals Jan – April, and
therefore need programming that delivers high ratings.   The 2000 Census
paid advertising campaign also had a Super Bowl ad for just this reason.

The Super Bowl is the top-rated and most highly anticipated television
event in the U.S.  An ad running once in the Super Bowl has the potential
to reach 45% adults over age 18.  For comparison, CSI which is one of the
top rated programs on television delivers a 6.6 rating with adults, which
is a fraction of the reach of the Super Bowl.   A 30 second spot on the
top-rated regularly scheduled show in America, American Idol costs $450,000
and has a 9.5 rating, or just 9.5% of adults are watching.   The Super Bowl
reaches 100 million viewers at a very efficient price compared to other
shows.

 The Super Bowl is rare, in that viewers are just as tuned in to see the
commercials as the program itself.  Commercials that air on the Super Bowl
have a multiplier effect.  Advertisers are mentioned in multiple news media
outlets and viewers will typically look to view them online almost
immediately after airing.  Therefore, airing once in the Super Bowl creates
significant buzz leading to additional viewing potential.

Our media buy with CBS consists of (1) 30 second ad in the 3rd Quarter.
CBS provided added value in the form of (2) more 30 second ads in the
pre-game show and an additional (2-3) 12-second vignettes featuring James
Brown delivering a message on behalf of the Census.  We believe the message
delivered by James Brown who is the host of the day, will carry great
weight with viewers.

We did not choose the Super Bowl itself for an ad, or at the expense of
some other programming.  We went where the audience was to be found, and
CBS put the Super Bowl into their proposal for all Census ad dollars, along
with the NCAA finals and other high profile programming.  NBC similarly
offered us special programming for advertising during the Olympics.

We did conduct focus groups and other research for all of our paid
advertising concepts in 2009, including the concept of a “Snap Shot of 300
million Americans” which became the ads being directed by Christopher
Guest.  They tested very positively.  We conducted a total of 115 focus
groups in 37 markets cities across the United States for all our
advertising, television, radio, print, digital and out door.

The first ad in the series is currently airing and will also air during the
Super Bowl pre-game. A new will air during the game, but if we told you
what it was all about, it would spoil all the suspense.  While we reply on
the professional expertise and advice of our expert advertising
contractors, the Census Bureau is responsible for these ads and their
placement.

Finally, Super Bowl advertisers see a significant lift in internet searches
which is a great opportunity for Census to drive traffic to 2010census.gov
to further educate viewers on the Census.

The story: FoxNews has claimed that Democrats in Ohio are may rig the 2010 Census.

MyTwoCensus Commentary: We urge readers to proceed with caution, as this article is filled with the kind of “Gotcha!” fluff that has made FoxNews so famous. However, FoxNews continues to serve an important role in keeping Democratic administrations on their toes…so we’ll watch this one for a bit.

The Story: Hatian immigrants moving permanently to Florida en masse could positively affect the Sunshine State’s headcount.

MyTwoCensus Commentary: Yup. This is likely. But how many grieving newly arrived Hatians make time for the 2010 Census as their first priority when upon landing in the US?

The Story:  Apparently, the Census Bureau is having trouble finding workers in West Texas.

MyTwoCensus Commentary: Even if West Texas has a low unemployment rate unlike the rest of the nation, there are still many unemployed and competent people out there. The Census Bureau recruiters in this area should be fired because clearly they are incapable of doing their jobs.

The Story: A 2010 Census meeting in Monroe, Louisiana draws sparse attendance.

MyTwoCensus Commentary: The Census Bureau did a great job getting the MEDIA and POLITICIANS to attend an event, but not the PEOPLE. Clearly there is a disconnect here. Will this be indicative of a low number of people returning their Census forms?

The following comes from Justin Wolfers, a professor at my alma mater, the University of Pennsylvania, who writes for The New York Times’ Freakonomics blog and answers the age old question… “Can you trust the census?”:

No. At least that’s the conclusion of an important new paper (ungated versionhere) by Trent Alexander, Michael Davern and Betsey Stevenson, who find enormous errors in some critically important economic datasets.

Let’s start with the 2000 Decennial Census. Your responses to the Census were used for two purposes. First, the Census Bureau tallied up every response to produce its official population counts. And second, it produced a 1-in-20 sub-sample of these responses, which it made available for analysis by researchers. Just about every economist I know has used this Census sub-sample, as do a fair number of demographers, sociologists, political scientists, and private-sector market researchers.

The errors are documented in a stunningly straightforward manner. The authors compare the official census count (based on the tallying up of all Census forms) with their own calculations, based on the sub-sample released for researchers (the “public use micro sample,” available through IPUMS). If all is well, then the authors’ estimates should be very close to 100% of the official population count. But they aren’t:

Source: Inaccurate Age and Sex Data in the Census PUMS Files: Evidence and Implications
Trent Alexander, Michael Davern and Betsey Stevenson

The two estimates are pretty similar for those younger than 65. But then things go haywire, with the alternative estimates disagreeing by as much as 15%. In fact, the microdata suggest that there are more very old men than very old women — I know some senior women who wish this were true! The Census Bureau has confirmed that the problem isn’t with the authors’ calculations. Rather, the problem is in the public-use microdata sample.

What’s the source of the problem? The Census Bureau purposely messes with the microdata a little, to protect the identity of each individual. For instance, if they recode a 37-year-old expat Aussie living in Philadelphia as a 36-year-old, then it’s harder for you to look me up in the microdata, which protects my privacy. In order to make sure the data still give accurate estimates, it is important that they also recode a 36-year-old with similar characteristics as being 37. This gives you the gist of some of their “disclosure avoidance procedures.” While it may all sound a bit odd, if these procedures are done properly, the data will yield accurate estimates, while also protecting my identity. So far, so good.

But the problem arose because of a programming error in how the Census Bureau ran these procedures. The right response is obvious: fix the programs, and publish corrected data. Unfortunately, the Census Bureau has refused to correct the data.

The problem also runs a bit deeper. If the mistake were just the one shown in the above graph, it would be easy to simply re-scale the estimates so that there are no longer too many, say, 85-year-old men — just weight them down a bit. But it turns out that the same coding error also messes up the correlation between age and employment, or age and marital status (and, the authors suspect, possibly other correlations as well). When you break several correlations like this, there’s no easy statistical fix.